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How, Oh, How, did they do it?

Posted under Discipleship, Emerging Church, Leadership and Structures, Ministry by Matt on Saturday 9 December 2006 at 3:04 pm (-0600)

Alan Hirsch asks a profound question of Christian origins

(via Bro. Maynard, as usual…)

100AD There are as little as 25 000 Christians
310AD There are as many as 20 000 000 Christians

He then asked the question, and it has haunted me to this day, â€œhow did they do this?â€? â€œHow did they grow from being a small movement to the most significant religious force in the Roman Empire in two centuries?â€? Now thatâ€™s a question to initiate a journey! And delving into this question drove me to the discovery of what I will call Apostolic Genius (the inbuilt life force and guiding mechanism of Godâ€™s people) and the living components or elements that make it up. These components I have tagged missional DNA or mDNA for short.

Breaking down Hirsch’s numbers, we see that the church grew

80,000% in 210 years
or, 3.18% per year (APY), assuming a constant rate of growth,
and, it doubles every 21.78 years.

This means that the following table may be employed for the growth of the church in the first two centuries:

year population emperor 100 25000 Trajan 101 25809 Trajan 102 26643 Trajan 103 27505 Trajan 104 28395 Trajan 105 29313 Trajan 106 30261 Trajan 107 31240 Trajan 108 32250 Trajan 109 33293 Trajan 110 34370 Trajan 111 35482 Trajan 112 36629 Trajan 113 37814 Trajan 114 39037 Trajan 115 40300 Trajan 116 41603 Trajan 117 42949 Trajan 118 44338 Hadrian 119 45772 Hadrian 120 47252 Hadrian 121 48780 Hadrian 122 50358 Hadrian 123 51987 Hadrian 124 53668 Hadrian 125 55404 Hadrian 126 57196 Hadrian 127 59046 Hadrian 128 60955 Hadrian 129 62927 Hadrian 130 64962 Hadrian 131 67063 Hadrian 132 69232 Hadrian 133 71472 Hadrian 134 73783 Hadrian 135 76169 Hadrian 136 78633 Hadrian 137 81176 Hadrian 138 83802 Hadrian 139 86512 Antoninus Pius 140 89310 Antoninus Pius 141 92199 Antoninus Pius 142 95181 Antoninus Pius 143 98259 Antoninus Pius 144 101437 Antoninus Pius 145 104718 Antoninus Pius 146 108105 Antoninus Pius 147 111601 Antoninus Pius 148 115211 Antoninus Pius 149 118937 Antoninus Pius 150 122784 Antoninus Pius 151 126755 Antoninus Pius 152 130855 Antoninus Pius 153 135087 Antoninus Pius 154 139456 Antoninus Pius 155 143967 Antoninus Pius 156 148623 Antoninus Pius 157 153430 Antoninus Pius 158 158392 Antoninus Pius 159 163515 Antoninus Pius 160 168804 Antoninus Pius 161 174263 Antoninus Pius 162 179899 Marcus Aurelius 163 185718 Marcus Aurelius 164 191725 Marcus Aurelius 165 197926 Marcus Aurelius 166 204327 Marcus Aurelius 167 210936 Marcus Aurelius 168 217758 Marcus Aurelius 169 224801 Marcus Aurelius 170 232072 Marcus Aurelius 171 239577 Marcus Aurelius 172 247326 Marcus Aurelius 173 255325 Marcus Aurelius 174 263583 Marcus Aurelius 175 272108 Marcus Aurelius 176 280909 Marcus Aurelius 177 289995 Marcus Aurelius 178 299374 Marcus Aurelius 179 309057 Marcus Aurelius 180 319053 Marcus Aurelius 181 329372 Commodus 182 340025 Commodus 183 351022 Commodus 184 362375 Commodus 185 374095 Commodus 186 386195 Commodus 187 398685 Commodus 188 411580 Commodus 189 424892 Commodus 190 438634 Commodus 191 452821 Commodus 192 467467 Year of the Five Emperors 193 482586 Septimus Severus 194 498194 Septimus Severus 195 514307 Septimus Severus 196 530941 Septimus Severus 197 548114 Septimus Severus 198 565841 Septimus Severus 199 584142 Septimus Severus 200 603035 Septimus Severus 201 622539 Septimus Severus 202 642674 Septimus Severus 203 663460 Septimus Severus 204 684918 Septimus Severus 205 707071 Septimus Severus 206 729940 Septimus Severus 207 753548 Septimus Severus 208 777920 Septimus Severus 209 803080 Septimus Severus 210 829054 Septimus Severus 211 855869 Septimus Severus 212 883550 Caracalla 213 912127 Caracalla 214 941628 Caracalla 215 972083 Caracalla 216 1003523 Caracalla 217 1035980 Caracalla 218 1069486 Macrinus 219 1104077 Elagabolus 220 1139786 Elagabolus 221 1176650 Elagabolus 222 1214707 Elagabolus 223 1253994 Alexander Severus 224 1294552 Alexander Severus 225 1336422 Alexander Severus 226 1379645 Alexander Severus 227 1424267 Alexander Severus 228 1470332 Alexander Severus 229 1517887 Alexander Severus 230 1566981 Alexander Severus 231 1617661 Alexander Severus 232 1669981 Alexander Severus 233 1723994 Alexander Severus 234 1779753 Alexander Severus 235 1837316 Alexander Severus 236 1896740 Maximinus Thrax 237 1958086 Maximinus Thrax 238 2021417 Maximinus Thrax 239 2086795 Gordian III 240 2154289 Gordian III 241 2223965 Gordian III 242 2295895 Gordian III 243 2370151 Gordian III 244 2446809 Gordian III 245 2525946 Phillip the Arab 246 2607642 Phillip the Arab 247 2691982 Phillip the Arab 248 2779048 Phillip the Arab 249 2868931 Phillip the Arab 250 2961721 Decius 251 3057512 Decius 252 3156401 Trebonianus Gallus 253 3258489 Trebonianus Gallus 254 3363878 Valerian 255 3472676 Valerian 256 3584993 Valerian 257 3700943 Valerian 258 3820642 Valerian 259 3944213 Valerian 260 4071781 Valerian 261 4203475 Gallienus 262 4339428 Gallienus 263 4479778 Gallienus 264 4624668 Gallienus 265 4774244 Gallienus 266 4928657 Gallienus 267 5088065 Gallienus 268 5252628 Gallienus 269 5422514 Claudius II 270 5597895 Claudius II 271 5778947 Aurelian 272 5965856 Aurelian 273 6158810 Aurelian 274 6358004 Aurelian 275 6563641 Aurelian 276 6775929 Probus 277 6995084 Probus 278 7221326 Probus 279 7454885 Probus 280 7695999 Probus 281 7944911 Probus 282 8201873 Probus 283 8467146 Carus 284 8741000 Carinus 285 9023710 Carinus 286 9315564 Diocletian 287 9616857 Diocletian 288 9927896 Diocletian 289 10248994 Diocletian 290 10580477 Diocletian 291 10922682 Diocletian 292 11275955 Diocletian 293 11640653 Diocletian 294 12017147 Diocletian 295 12405818 Diocletian 296 12807060 Diocletian 297 13221279 Diocletian 298 13648895 Diocletian 299 14090341 Diocletian 300 14546066 Diocletian 301 15016529 Diocletian 302 15502209 Diocletian 303 16003598 Diocletian 304 16521202 Diocletian 305 17055548 Diocletian 306 17607176 Constantine (inter alii) 307 18176645 Constantine (inter alii) 308 18764533 Constantine (inter alii) 309 19371435 Constantine (inter alii) 310 19997966 Constantine (inter alii)

Thus, the Christian population doubled in 121/122, 143/144, 165/166, 187/188, 208/209, 230/231, etc.

While I place great weight in Hirsch’s qualifiers - offered as the bulleted list on his original post - understanding the point he is making, I might suggest another possibility here that I would like to proffer for the discussion.

If these rates are to be believed (and there is little reason at this time why they should not be), then it would seem that these Christians did not merely make conversions at the rate of 3.18% per year, but rather grew the population of mature believers at the rate of 3.18% per year. Better put, perhaps, these Christians grew the body of people who are able to make believers of others at the rate of 3.18% per year. In my mind, of course, that assumes maturity in the faith, to a large extent.

Put this way, it is necessary for us to establish two major datasets, one largely numerical and the other systematic.

The numerical dataset would be the rates of attrition between lifestyle and proclamation, between proclamation and conversion, and between conversion and reproducible maturity. (The rates of attrition due to death and renunciation should be included as well.) I hypothesize that the rate of attrition between conversion and reproducible maturity, equivalent in the very least to the difference between spiritual infancy and spiritual adolescence, was significantly smaller in those days than in the contemporary West. Moreover, I hypothesize that while data from the Empire would be sparse, similar data from China would be correlative and rather more available.

The systematic dataset would speak to the systems, structures and approaches utilized by these Christians to achieve a yearly reproducible maturity rate of 3.18%. I hypothesize that their priorities for ministry were significantly different than the average church in the West.

The point I am making is this: a 3.18% growth rate is an amazing growth rate for the Western church these days. However, it is a rate that speaks to the annual growth rate of the portion of the population that is able to reproduce (spiritually, please), with all attrition factors taken into account. The challenge for the churches of today is to find ways of measuring the spiritually reproducible population within congregational life. This population should be the dominant voice and factor in churches that hope to grow. However, I assume that they are not.

How many people in my congregation make up the spiritually reproducible population? Have we measured this? How great is their voice in congregational dynamics? Are they heard? Do they get priority? What do we need to do to to get there?

I would appreciate Mr. Hirsch’s response - any that he is willing to give.

1 Comment »

Comment by Alan Hirsch — Sunday, 10 December 2006 @ 4:41 am (-0600)
Wow, what a labor of love! Thanks a ton for this Matt. (Hey btw, pleae don’t call me Mr. Hirsch. Makes me feel a bit wierd. alan is fine)

Fascinating ideas. My only comment is that as far as I am aware the growth pattern of the early church was never fully even. It fluctuated depending on conditions (health, wars, etc.) Actually the plagues served to aid growth because the Christians served the sick and nursed them to health at the risk of their own lives. this gave them real credibility and caused a mass influx into the church.

Rodney Stark (The Rise of Christianity) is a sociologist who puts his hand to history. He says that the church grows 40% per decade. but his base figure is very conservative. too conservative in my opinion. He ends up with 12 million by year 300. but if the base figure goes up to say 35,000 then you end up with significantly more than 12 million. This takes fluctuations into account.

Thanks for the post Matt.

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How, Oh, How, did they do it?

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